Global revenue for lighting equipment grew by 4.6 percent in 2015, according to recently published estimates from the IHS Markit Lighting Intelligence Service. This is a slightly lower rate of growth than the previous year, when revenue grew 4.8 percent. Behind this overall growth rate are two separate, although interlinked, stories, writes Paul Bremner, senior analyst, IHS Markit.
First, lamp market revenue grew 4 percent in 2015, which was lower than the 7.3 percent revenue growth in 2014, but higher than previous IHS Markit revenue forecasts through 2023. As the lamp market continues to transition to LED, there are two effects combining to mute future revenue growth: an overall decline in lamp shipments, and price erosion of LED lamps.
As customers switch to LED technologies that have much longer lifespans than traditional technologies, fewer replacement lamps are required, resulting in lower shipment levels. As prices for LED lamps fall, manufacturer revenue will also begin declining in 2019.
Secondly, luminaire revenue grew 4.8 percent, which was higher than the 3.9 percent revenue growth in 2014. Unlike the lamp market, luminaire revenue growth is expected to continue over the forecast period. This growth comes from LED integrated and LED replacement luminaires, which will see continued growth in both revenue and shipments through 2023.
New global and regional market statistics, forecasts and market share estimates were recently added to the IHS Markit Lighting Intelligence Service. In addition to the above, other key findings include the following:
The supply base for both non-LED and LED lamps became more fragmented in 2015, with the top 10 vendors falling from 54.8 percent to 41.4 percent of the market for non-LED lamps, and falling from 55.1 percent to 50.2 percent of the market for LED lamps.
Unlike the lamp market of revenue in 2015.
LED lamps and luminaires, the supply base for LED luminaires became more consolidated. The top 10 vendors accounted for 33.5 percent of the market in 2015, up from 29.6 percent in 2014.China is estimated to have been the largest regional market for lighting equipment, comprising almost 30 percent of the global market in 2015.
LED lamps and luminaires accounted for only 7.8 percent of unit shipments, but made up 28.6 percent are expected to comprise more than half of all lighting market revenue by 2019.